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Disaster Averted, But 'Dr. Doom' Still Sees Grim Economic Outlook

Posted Jun 19, 2009 07:00am EDT by Tech Ticker in Newsmakers, Recession

NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini earned the moniker "Dr. Doom" for his dire predictions in late 2006, 2007 and early 2008. He then earned global fame when many of those forecasts came to fruition.

More recently, Roubini has faced criticism because his fears of a global depression did not come to fruition. The economist has softened his mega-bearish stance in recent months, but only after policymakers "looked into the abyss and got religion."

In other words, Roubini believes an outright depression was avoided only because policymakers adopted many of the policies he was advocating, including massive government spending, dramatic Fed easing and major backstops for the financial system.

So with disaster having been averted, what does Roubini see next for the economy?

It might surprise some of you to learn the economist isn't forecasting economic Armageddon anymore. But it probably won't surprise you that's he's more downbeat than most of his peers.

As detailed in the accompanying video, Roubini's outlook includes:

  • The recession continuing until year-end vs. consensus forecasts of a second-half recovery and even some declarations the recession has already ended.
  • No V-shaped recovery; Roubini says the odds of a "double-dip-W" are very high.
  • While participants in a Chicago Federal Reserve Bank survey foresee 3.2% growth in 2010 and the Obama administration is basing budget projections on a return to 4% GDP growth, Roubini forecasts U.S. GDP growth of just 1% for 2010 and 2011.
  • Contrary to some market predictions for rate hikes later this year, Roubini sees no Fed rate hikes until 2011, as discussed here.

80 Comments

franck s
franck s - Friday June 19, 2009 07:08AM EDT

In reality Roubini is hugely optimistic, forecasting 1% growth when major economies are shrinking at better than 5%.

marx
marx - Friday June 19, 2009 07:18AM EDT

Roubinis ties to the world bank,imf and privately owned Fed Res make him an untrusted source for information.He is a tool to instill fear into our minds so that we support lending more powers to the FED. Instead of listening to this mouthpiece we need to Email our congress and tell them to support auditing the fed with HR 1207 and S 604.

marx
marx - Friday June 19, 2009 07:35AM EDT

Roubinis ties to the world bank,imf and privately owned Fed Res make him an untrusted source for information.He is a tool to instill fear into our minds so that we support lending more powers to the FED. Instead of listening to this mouthpiece we need to Email our congress and tell them to support auditing the fed with HR 1207 and S 604. http://www.ronpaul.com/on-the-issues/audit-the-federal-reserve-hr-1207/

Wooglet
Wooglet - Friday June 19, 2009 07:52AM EDT

I do not think that having ties to places where the information is, like the Fed, and world bank make your predictions suspect. As always in economics nobody really knows. Economists try to predict what you are going to do, and who knows what you are going to do?

chemic76spirit
chemic76spirit - Friday June 19, 2009 08:06AM EDT

He should , every time ya look around the oil speculates are looking for an excuse to raise the price , and Obama keeps spending everyones money before they get it. Bunch of frikking retards running this country, they all need to go for a long walk off a short peer Obama better see to it that AIG, and all those banks, and GM,Chrysler, pay back ever dollar loaned out too... WITH INTEREST !!.

Eric W
Eric W - Friday June 19, 2009 08:11AM EDT

Audit the Federal Reserve, they are a private corporation putting our children into indentured servitude to a corrupt government and a fiat currency. Support Ron Paul and HR 1207 and S 604. As for the "recovery", it is based on glue sniffing speculators, opportunists, and suckers. Spring is a nice time of year, and a dead cat dropped from 10 stories bounces surprisingly high. The owners are holding it up as if it were alive, but it will hit the ground again and eventually be buried deeper than when it chased mice.

jes
jes - Friday June 19, 2009 08:13AM EDT

he does make sense, oil going up too soon could lead to economic problems.

Tony S
Tony S - Friday June 19, 2009 08:13AM EDT

This guy is as correct as anyone else... 50/50 chance ))) What an arrogant idiot.

harshing_my_mellow
harshing_my_mellow - Friday June 19, 2009 08:17AM EDT

Put 10 economists on a panel and ask them the same question and see how many answers you get loaded with provisos, addendums, CYA and arrogance. They are the weatherman of the economy. Have them explain why the market is "upbeat"? There is a crap load of bad things out there that are not being addressed in the credit and real estate environments that no one wants to consider anymore. You read about the employment picture and the pundits like to talk about the leading/lagging indicators, yet, when someone loses their job, real estate is affected, tax income is affected, spending is affected .... with massive government spending on "new projects" and not taking care of "current projects" I am somewhat concerned. If this is an exercise in throwing as much out there as possible to see what sticks, imagine the quality of the product??? Especially with 14% unemployment that will rise through out the 1Q2010..... What disaster was averted?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 19, 2009 08:19AM EDT

The United State Goverment.....Going Into...."Bankruptcy"...That Is ....A Reality...!!!!!

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday June 19, 2009 08:19AM EDT

ERIC W - Summed it up to perfection. Kudos. It's good to see that everyone out there isn't slurping the kool aid by the gallon. Why do we even 'need' the Federal Reserve? They've caused much more damage than good over the last 10 years.

delphi4U
delphi4U - Friday June 19, 2009 08:23AM EDT

I truly wish that things were as good as the government is telling us, but based on experience the opposite is very likely true. I know people who have lost their jobs--- of all ages. I see the price of gas going out of control yet again. I notice college grads are largely unable to find jobs. People are suffering, and many of them are the ones who always behaved responsibly. This is not over. The "other shoe", inflation, has to drop and when it does we all are in the soup, vegans and carnivores alike. Start a garden and learn to preserve food. Find a friend who is a good hunter and willing to share. God bless you and our country.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday June 19, 2009 08:23AM EDT

Anyone at any time can predict the end of the recession and not worry about any kind of evidence. Numbers can be produced to show anything. If the truth is ever told, the economy would be significantly lower than what it is right now and economists would be forced to stay in their classrooms and teach the next generation of economists.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday June 19, 2009 08:24AM EDT

ERIC W - Summed it up to perfection. Kudos. It's good to see that everyone out there isn't slurping the kool aid by the gallon. Why do we even 'need' the Federal Reserve? They've caused much more damage than good over the last 10 years. Ben Bernanke hasn't been right about anything now for over 2 years,

Nandakumar
Nandakumar - Friday June 19, 2009 08:31AM EDT

Obama has only delayed the inevitable(Depression Part II) by spending trillions of dollars.Just like how GM and chrysler bankruptcy was delayed. Also we will see a day when AMERICA DEFAULTS

Dan Marino
Dan Marino - Friday June 19, 2009 08:32AM EDT

As a day trader, I warn all of you that the government all during the crash of 08 was telling us everythings fine...dont worry...well after a blast that we suffered, it is downright criminal how the media is reporting that all we see are "green shoots" of recovery. That is not what is going on here...we have seen a 40% self driven "recovery" using almost a trillion dollars taken on loan from our futures on the biggest gamble in world history. Think about it..what options did the government have? Bread lines and riots? Thats what we were facing then. Im holding a mostly cash position and I'm waiting for a 20-30% correction very soon...free advice from a guy who shorted the marker in 08 and MADE MONEY!.....peace!

there
there - Friday June 19, 2009 08:37AM EDT

I can't believe anybody listens to this beer belly.

Edward
Edward - Friday June 19, 2009 08:38AM EDT

OIl will go 100 per barrel soon. Let's face it, Americans consume more oil than Asians combine....

Cas
Cas - Friday June 19, 2009 08:39AM EDT

As the saying goes, “Even a broken clock is correct twice a day”. www.PTLdomains.com

sportsfan
sportsfan - Friday June 19, 2009 08:43AM EDT

I'm sick of this guy. he was right once. so was i once. i guarantee you if you invest your money based on this guy's predictions (or any one guy), you will lose your money. Let's remember Roubini is 100% long in stocks. that's what makes him personally brilliant. if he's right, he makes money from publicity. if he's wrong, he makes money from stocks. it's the ultimate hedge.

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